Prof Shabir Madhi: SA has slowed community transmission of Covid-19 but hasn't flattened the curve3/6/2020
South Africa has not "flattened the curve" because, during the lockdown, community transmission continued and the effective reproductive rate hadn't been reduced enough. This is according to Professor Shabir Madhi of the University of the Witwatersrand.
Professor Shabir Madhi, who is a Professor of Vaccinology at the University of the Witwatersrand and currently serves as a member of the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Health, was speaking in an exclusive interview with Salaamedia on Tuesday night.
Effective reproductive rate Madhi explained that the effective reproductive rate, which measures how many people are likely to be infected by a person who has already been infected with Covid-19, was not reduced to the level it should have been as a result of the lockdown. The lockdown was implemented in order to "flatten the curve" so that the country's healthcare systems could be prepared to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. The goal to "flatten the curve" is achieved by reducing the effective reproductive rate. The effective reproductive rate indicates that the average carrier of Covid-19 will infect two to three other people without a lockdown in place. Madhi said that, with the lockdown, it should have been reduced to below one in order to contain the virus. "To be able to contain the spread of the virus, that reproductive rate needs to come under one. During the period of the lockdown, it remained at about 1.5." "It came down slightly but certainly not under one. Basically, there was ongoing community transmission and perhaps more so in the Western Cape than in areas such as Gauteng." "We have not flattened the curve. During the lockdown, there was ongoing community transmission."
This comes after Professor Salim Abdool Karim, who is the chairperson of South Africa's Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee, declared on Friday night that the country had "flattened the curve".
Transmission rate slowed Madhi said that the transmission rate was indeed slowed but reiterated that containment had not been achieved. He said that the lower transmission rate has assisted preparations undertaken by the healthcare system nevertheless. "We did slow the rate of transmission but we certainly didn't contain the virus, we didn't contain community transmission, but at least it has bought us some time in terms of allowing our healthcare facilities to be better equipped." 'Not time to lament' Speaking about the state of South Africa's fragile healthcare system, Madhi said that South Africa isn't unique in terms of not being adequately equipped for the coronavirus pandemic. "You've seen what has happened in Italy, you've seen what has happened in Spain. There are many countries that simply were not adequately equipped." While noting that South Africa's healthcare system is in a better state than that of many other African countries, Madhi stressed that adequate investment needs to be made in the healthcare system. "At the same time that's not an excuse for us not to have made adequate investment in healthcare facilities." "This is not the time to lament about how poor our healthcare facilities are," he said. "This is the time to see what we can do over a short period of time to make sure that our healthcare facilities are as equipped as they can be in terms of dealing with the surge of cases over the next two to three months." Public understanding is key He added that the public is required to understand the situation in order to get through the pandemic rather than relying on the government to speedily set up health facilities. "The reality is that healthcare facilities aren't built overnight. Government can't build and stock hospitals overnight. The only thing that's going to assist us is for South Africans to understand what it is they're dealing with." He explained that this doesn't mean the public should get scared of the virus. "The virus is with us and theres no running away from it." The solution, he said, lies in the public assisting the government healthcare facilities by adhering to "non pharmaceutical interventions" which include proper hygiene, wearing face masks and maintaining physical distancing. Listen to the full discussion here:
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AuthorZahid Jadwat is a South African writer, columnist, podcaster and radio show host. Archives
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